Microsoft: Windows XP PC Upgrade Wave May Never Come

Microsoft (MSFT) and PC vendors like Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) keep talking about Windows XP’s end of life, and the massive Windows PC upgrade cycle it will trigger. But what if one big massive upgrade wave to new corporate Windows PCs never comes? Here’s why it may never happen.

During the classic PC era, consumers and businesses purchased new Windows PCs — or software upgrades — roughly ever three years. Was your old Windows 3.x PC getting a little slow and clunky? Sit tight and wait for Windows 95. It will be great. The massive consumer upgrade wave will start first. Then the corporate wave will start about 18 months later. And by the way, it’s your only upgrade path.

Now fast forward to the current market. Microsoft will end Windows XP extended support on April 8, 2014. Microsoft keeps telling IT channel partners that Windows XP’s retirement will trigger a massive upgrade wave to Windows 7 in businesses and Windows 8 in the consumer market. 

The numbers certainly look promising. Paul Thurrott notes that Windows XP’s corporate installed base might be around 300 million PCs, according to Net Applications. That’s a big installed base that IT channel partners can refresh. But will they succeed in doing so?

Of those 300 million Windows XP PCs, how many will shift to:

• Windows 7 and Windows 8.1?
• Apple and Mac OS X?
• Tablets and smartphones running Apple iOS and Android?
• Google Chromebooks?
• Alternative thin clients now sold by Dell, HP and others?
• Niche Linux offerings?
• Nothing at all?

The VAR Guy’s key point: That big Windows XP installed base won’t automatically shift to Microsoft’s “next” operating system. Unlike the age of Windows 95 and Windows 2000, the market is now flooded with alternatives — which has cut quarterly PC sales by about 10 percent. 

Microsoft and its PC partners will certainly win a portion of the Windows XP upgrade cycle. But not all of it. And perhaps, not even most of it…