Report: Semiconductor Shipments Could Breach 1 Trillion Units by 2016

Semiconductor shipments could surpass 1 trillion units worldwide by 2016, stepping ahead from an 8 percent uptick this year to grow 11 percent in 2015 and another 12 percent in 2016 to reach the milestone high-water mark, according to a report by IC Insights.

The researcher projects 1,005.8 billion unit shipments of integrated circuits and optical, sensor, and discrete (OSD) devices in two years that will herald a new baseline, fueled in part by the Internet of Everything’s (IoE) expected explosion of connected sensors.

You’d think with OSD devices accounting for 74 percent of the total semiconductor units shipped by 2016—as compared to 26 percent for integrated circuits—embedded sensors would be the catapult spiking OSD numbers skyward. But that’s not the case: In 1978 the percentage split of IC and OSD devices within total semiconductor units actually leaned more toward OSD at 79 percent and has remained constant ever since.

Still, Brian Matas, IC Insights Market Research vice president, said the researcher took into account a projected embedded sensor jump associated with the IoE’s coming wave of connected devices, adding that its OSD figures may turn out to be on the conservative side.

IC Insights has charted semiconductor shipments back to the 32.6 billion units shipped in 1978, with the trend line showing a healthy 9.4 percent average annual increase running through 2016, despite a five-year slump from 2008 to 2013, when the industry slipped to a 5 percent growth rate following a 19 percent slide in 2001 in the wake of the dot.com debacle.

According to IC Insight’s data, semiconductor unit shipments initially broke through the 100 billion mark in 1987, climbing to 500 billion in 2006 and 600 billion a year later, before the economic collapse of 2008-2009 pulled the numbers down in the only yearly sequential decline on record. In 2010, the industry recovered with a 25 percent spike, the researcher said.