Is Dell Down or Up?

You gotta love financial analysts and tech journalists. They have a way of making brave predictions based on distorted information. A case in point: Fortune is telling readers to “Pick Up Some Dell [Stock] While It’s Down.” The headline ranks among the most misleading statements The VAR Guy has read this year. Here’s why.

Sure, the PC giant has had its share of problems. And the company’s PE (price-to-earnings ratio) is about 20, far cheaper than Apple’s multiple of 30, Fortune notes. But here’s the strange thing about Fortune’s stock recommendation: The stock isn’t down. It’s UP. In fact, Dell shares are trading near a 52-week high. In reality, the right time to buy the stock was back in the March-April timeframe, when shares were around $21.61 — far lower than today’s price of $28.45.

Admittedly, Dell still has a lot more ground to recover. Shares traded above $40 back in 2005. But Fortune is acting as if Dell is in the gutter and shares have never been cheaper. Nothing like telling readers to buy a “stock while it’s down” … even though shares have climbed 30 percent since mid-2006.

(Full disclosure: The VAR Guy owns a fewer than 100 Dell shares.)