Apple iPhone: 8 Reasons to Believe (And 8 Reasons to Worry)Apple iPhone: 8 Reasons to Believe (And 8 Reasons to Worry)
Will Apple's iPhone live up to its hype and spark another technology revolution? The answer won't be known until Apple ships the device in June. Still, a Penn State UniversityÂ tech guru (John Jordan) has developed an intriguing list of reasons the iPhone will either be a huge hit or a massive disappointment. Here's an abbreviated version of Jordan's analysis, boiled down by The VAR Guy... The iPhone could fail if: It proves to be too expensive The user interface/form factor is cumbersome
April 9, 2007
Will Apple’s iPhone live up to its hype and spark another technology revolution? The answer won’t be known until Apple ships the device in June. Still, a Penn State UniversityÂ tech guru (John Jordan) has developed an intriguing list of reasons the iPhone will either be a huge hit or a massive disappointment.
Here’s an abbreviated version of Jordan’s analysis, boiled down by The VAR Guy…
The iPhone could fail if:
It proves to be too expensive
The user interface/form factor is cumbersome
It does too many things not so well, instead of one or two things really well
It suffers from poor battery life, durability, voice quality or data security
AT&T can’t hold up its end of the bargain
Apple can’t match the power of the cell phone industry’s incumbents
There’s a disconnect with demographics; 15-to-30-year-olds may be least able to afford the device
Apple moves too far away of its comfort zone and can’t master telecom supply chains
Now, for the flipside of the arguement. The iPhone could succeed if:
Apple has truly invented a new category of device and learned from the Motorola ROKR music player+phone
Its user interface transcends everyhing else in the category, thanks to its simplicity
Its industrial design once again delivers an unsurpassed “cool” factor
Apple’s vast army of users races to sync the iPhone with their PCs
It works within mobile broadband networks, including WiFi hotspots, WiMAX and other broadband systems
The demographics align, and 20-somethings increasingly replace their landline phones with a tablet-phone-music player
It finds a killer applications–such as visual voice mail (browsing and managing voice messages from the screen)
Businesses treat it as a secure, wireless Unix terminal that can run mission-critical applications
Hmmm. For iPhone to fulfill points 7 and 8, The VAR Guy believes, Apple will need to partner with companies like Cisco on unified communications. In fact, Apple and Cisco have been discussing a relationship, but Cisco CEO John Chambers isn’t quite ready to announce any potential agreements just yet.
For the record, The VAR Guy believes the iPhone will be a hit, selling anywhere from 3.2 million to 7 million units in its first year.
And please note, once again: The lists above are simplified versions of John Jordan’s in-depth analysis. Be sure to check out his original post at http://earlyindications.blogspot.com/.
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