U.S. Netbooks: Five Examples Why Windows Dominates Linux
Before you flame The VAR Guy, please keep in mind that he runs Linux, Mac OS X and Windows. But during some recent trips to retail stores across North America, he spotted five clear examples why Windows will continue to dominate Linux on Netbooks. Here's the scoop...
...from The VAR Guy's most recent road trips.
Before you flame The VAR Guy, please keep in mind that he runs Linux, Mac OS X and Windows. But during some recent trips to retail stores across North America, he spotted five clear examples why Windows will continue to dominate Linux on Netbooks. Here’s the scoop…
…from The VAR Guy’s most recent road trips.
Reason One: Staples
Take a close look at the photo above. It was taken at a Staples retail store on Long Island. Sure, the special Netbook display features a range of mobile devices. But they’re all preloaded with Windows XP. All of them. When The VAR Guy asked the store manager if Linux alternatives were available, the store manager replied: “What you see if what you get.”
Influence: As of January 31, 2009, Staples had approximately 2,218 superstores across the globe.
Reason Two: BJ’s Wholesale
Roughly a year ago, The VAR Guy spotted Linux netbooks in BJ’s Wholesale warehouses on Long Island. In fact, The VAR Guy purchased an ASUS EeePC running Linux from the warehouse club in 2008.
Fast forward to the present, and BJ’s Wholesale didn’t seem to be stocking Linux Netbooks anymore. When The VAR Guy asked a clerk where the Linux Netbooks had gone, the clerk answered: “We stock what sells.” Ouch.
Influence: As of January 31, 2009, BJ’s operated 180 warehouse clubs in 15 U.S. states.
Reason Three: Best Buy
During visits to Best Buy in New York and Dallas, The VAR Guy came to the same conclusion… Numerous Netbooks available. But none of them included Linux. Another ouch.
Influence: As of February 28, 2009, Best Buy operated 1,023 U.S. Best Buy stores, and dozens of additional stores across the globe.
Reason Four: Micro Center
During a visit to Micro Center in Dallas, The VAR Guy spotted seven Netbooks — all with Windows XP preloaded. When The VAR Guy asked for a Linux alternative, the Micro Center salesman said it had been several months since he had seen a Linux Netbook on the retail store’s shelves.
Influence: Micro Center has 21 massive locations across the US.
Reason Five: Cellular and Wireless Broadband Providers
In New York, Verizon now advertises a “free” Compaq Netbook for customers that sign up for Internet, TV and phone service. Verizon also promotes Netbooks for 3G broadband customers. To the best of The VAR Guy’s knowledge, all of the systems run Windows XP.
Influence: Verizon had 86.6 million wireless customers as of April 2009.
What it All Means
To be sure, Linux has made Netbook progress. Some pundits think Linux will soon enjoy 50 percent market share on Netbooks, thanks to momentum in regions such as Asia.
Back in the USA, The VAR Guy thinks Linux will remain a niche Netbook option.
Sure, big companies like Dell and Hewlett-Packard now offer Linux as a preload option on Netbooks. And targeted PC providers — such as System 76 and, soon, ZaReason — are launching Ubuntu Netbooks.
But walk around US retail stores, folks, and you’ll discover a harsh reality: Linux Netbooks remain difficult — and often impossible — to find.
Some folks think Microsoft’s Windows 7 release, anticipated for October 22, will trigger a Netbook inflection point and shift more users to Linux. The VAR Guy isn’t so sure. Microsoft has eliminated the foolish “three concurrent application limit” that Windows 7 Starter Edition originally featured, paving the way for Windows 7 to succeed Windows XP on Netbooks.
At Least There’s Choice (Online)
If you’re rooting for Windows, Microsoft finally seems to be listening to your request for a faster-loading, simplified operating system upgrade. And if you’re rooting for Linux, there are plenty of Netbook options — if you look online.
Oh, and one parting thought: Even if Linux loses the Netbook market share war, the open source camp continues to put intense pricing pressure on Microsoft’s operating system business.
Follow The VAR Guy via RSS; Facebook; Identi.ca; Twitter; and via his Newsletter; Webcasts and Resource Center.
Sad but true… 🙁
Regarding the Staples part, I also asked about Linux machines once. The staples employee at that store basically told me frankly that there had been interest in stocking Linux netbooks at that store (he was actually for it), but he darkly implied that Microsoft had used threats to make sure it didn’t happen.
Of course, my words here are just hearsay and anecdotal, so take them for what you will.
@Noxn: Don’t weep too much. There’s healthy competition in the desktop software market… a far better situation than in the 1990s.
@Anon: The VAR Guy doesn’t think that Microsoft has used threats against retailers. Rather, this seems to be a supply vs. demand situation. If there was more demand for Linux systems in U.S. retail, PC makers would certainly respond.
A positive sign from Cellular and Wireless providers: I specifically asked the salesguy if the internet broadband USB key that I was about to purchase will work with Linux. He promptly replied that it will, simply because Linux comes with the drivers built-in. Having used linux primarily for the past 10 years or so, I knew that about linux drivers but coming from a store salesman (where each product claims to support Windows and MacOS only), it was a refreshing surprise.
I guess until Linux awareness reaches the tipping point (which is slowly but surely approaching), it will seem like its never going to make it.
VAR Guy,
I agree that there’s much more demand for Windows netbooks than for Linux-based ones, but the places which have stocked Linux netbooks have all sold out quickly (due to enthusiast purchases, probably). I can’t imagine that _no one_ is willing to stock them based on low sales when they don’t stay on the shelves.
I’m also not inclined to believe in overt threats from MS toward retailers. I think it’s probably a combination of MS pressure on OEMs (meaning there are few Linux netbooks for retailers to choose from) and conservative retailers who don’t want to take on the “risk” of offering Linux or the added cost of training salespeople for the L word.
@FromDownUnder: Congrats on your successful quest for Linux. But a traditional consumer would not have known to raise the savvy Linux questions that you offered the salesperson.
@Daeng Bo: In the case of Best Buy, Staples, Micro Center and BJ’s Wholesale, it seemed like retailers had no interest in stocking Linux netbooks, period. Of course, The VAR Guy’s knowledge is based on a very limited sample of stores, mostly in New York and Dallas… …
Thank you both for your perspectives. Great conversation.
-TVG
I have been using Linux for 2 years, I use it on a pretty regular basis and plan to get my Linux+ certification in the near future.
Having said that, it would make no commercial sense for retailers to stock Linux netbooks.
As you all know, there were massive amounts of returns coming from people who bought Linux netbooks, found out they didn’t have Windows, and promptly made a beeline for the return counter.
Linux has won a fair part of the developers it won’t get the rest without $$$ and users behind it.
I go to a community college and most of the computer science students there are experiencing Linux for the first time in class. These guys are the next step they are the market-share Linux can take next. They have to master Linux to support regular users and they are usually also the support kid.
In the home market to move forward it needs the support kid… if you’re here you probably are that guy, the one who tells mom and pop what to buy, how to fix that problem, disinfect them when they open the random attachment, etc.
Regular people aren’t going to run Linux without these people’s help period.
Sweden: even on-line Netbooks preloaded with Linux are becoming fewer. DELL’s offerings aren’t available (if I’m wrong they must be hidden deep among the sites links).
Sweden has boosted an overestimated ego of being in the forefront of IT not reflected in a versatile software market. Instead we’ve seen some questionable decisions made in recent years.
In Swedish we talk about the “channel” e g the link between vendors and customers (does it have the same meaning in English?). To provide better service for some customers we’re active in a smaller scale in the “channel” and hence gets information contentiously about trends and strategy. The “channel” is in my view one of the main reasons why Linux is pushed out. Windows opens up the possibility of selling “complementary” products, be it anti-virus, badly cheap built printers which only works thanks to drivers that put all load on the computer and so on. There’s limited knowledge in the channel about alternatives and it’s very cautious, not willing to risk such a profitable business as MS products. The country is also small and hence this “channel” is narrow, making it even more difficult to introduce niche products (I regularly buy hardware from Germany, like some Tyan motherboards, which aren’t available here).
The downside of this is twisted and flawed sale statistics, proving what Microsoft wants it to. In reality there seems to be a more active conversion-to-Linux activity among buyers. All in all it’s already a great step forward. Linux is at a point where it has a firm position in some of the more important parts of the industry.
Windows-users should celebrate Linux for obviously changing Microsoft’s mind and hence deliver a better product that it otherwise should have. To me it seems like users are winners, even though in a limited scale.
All: The VAR Guy is watching this conversation with great interest. @Matthews’ point about the need for Linux to engage college students is on the mark. Kids have open minds … they’re willing to try new devices and new software/services long before the adults typically make a spending decision.
The Linux community (software makers, hardware providers, etc.) needs to launch a coordinated effort to move onto college campuses…
Want to know the real reason why Windows dominates the Netbooks market? This article will be an education:
http://www.groklaw.net/article.php?story=20090619161307529
Meeven: Thanks for the link. The VAR Guy needs to give it a much closer read before offering his perspective.
the supply/demand line of thought is very very weak.. did you know the toothpaste companies pay supermarkets for shelfspace? try and transfer that fact to the relatively higher-margin pc sales industry if you would.. especially if it’s a 100% markup for windows 7
I bought my Acer Aspire One with GNU/Linux pre-loaded. Local electronics store (not a big box) ordered it for me. 300 dollars, sweet deal and reformatted with Ubuntu. I love it.
You get what you ask for. If you don’t ask for it, you don’t get it.
Keep in mind too the most important reason for this disparity:
The general public that goes to these stores buys on impulse most of the time. THEY KNOW about windows as it is “everywhere”, and microsoft’s marketing machine keeps the brand in the public eye.
Linux HAS no marketing machine, and thus MOST people have never heard of it as a choice.
The “demand” isn’t there because there is little knowledge of a choice in the first place.
If it doesn’t come with windows, the general user/buyer immediately thinks of “generic” or “not as good as..” and asks for what they think of as “premium” regardless of the reality.
I’ve seen so many articles like this one that inadvertently give a misleading impression about the way Windows is dominating the market. When I buy a computer, whether it be a netbook, a laptop, or a PC, I’m practically forced to buy it with Windows or jump through hoops to get it without – and that’s down to Microsoft’s dubious business practices.
As soon as I get it home, I set it up either to dual-boot Windows and Linux or to dual-boot two different Linux distros. Linux gives me the choice that Microsoft take away. How many millions of other people and businesses do the same?
Don’t bother counting the number of stores that only sell Windows-based netbooks. What you see in the store is what you get in the store. What you see at home and in the office is another story.
The real reason is much simpler. Retailers don’t like Linux as there is no margin in it for them. The old retailers have to compete on price with online retailers and the only margin they are making is by selling additional software and accessories. Here lies the problem, no Antivirus software or MS Office needed. You will say the same holds true for Mac, but Mac are high margin machines – not bottom end like linux. Sad but true, Linux will not sell until we will get as rubbish and virus ridden as MS.
When a manufacturer or importer releases a new product into the market, what do they do to ensure that it is an immediate amp; profitable success?
1. Spend a lot of money on “blanket” promotion to pique the “interest”;
(quite often the product is made VERY cheaply (usually in China), therefore even given “special offers”, the sale price returns a high profit margin allowing for quick returns on initial investment- I’ve seen very high percentage mark-ups in the stores of a large retailer which advertises in multiple media on a regular basis (companies that also probably get their buy price as low as possible), and it has become common now for even small companies to perpetuate interest in their product by using high frequency promotion/high mark-up stratagems).
2. Give confidence guarantees to the consumer like 14 days right-of-return, full support- you know- all the things that the consumer wants to hear. However, proof-in-the-pudding means that they must be prepared to go that extra distance to inspire confidence in the product and thereby in the company (remember, companies can “re-brand” to overcome bad histories).
So why do windows based netbooks now dominate (and it is not as if they would do so based on their own merits)?…
…Because retailers simply did not offer the support required to give the consumer confidence in their purchase. Remember the story of the female student whom bought the Ubuntu loaded Dell laptop? She finally felt satisfied and able to go forward with what she had, once she felt that even though it was a new experience, the support and confidence in that support, was there and available to her, and if she is a smart girl, she’d gradually realise an awareness of the “tux force”. So in actual fact, most of the blame surely comes down to the retailer whom did not give the purchaser the confidence they needed when buying something different. Retailers can talk all they want about margins, supplier support and lack thereof, but who’s kidding whom? Here’s a thought, just maybe, retailers are actually not employing the right people… those whom really are technologically savvy with the products that are selling. Let’s face it, the salesperson is NOT a windows guru either. Also, compare the level amp; competence of support you DO get out of each OS’s “support team”.
There are plenty of notebooks around with “made for Linux” where I live in Asia. They just don’t get much attention yet. Yesterday I bought a MSI Wind netbook that is marked for SuSE enterprise 10 and slapped Eeebuntu on it immediately. What a deal! I think the world is waiting for projects like Moblin and Android to show them something slick and innovative. Moblin is way cool- I use it also but less stable since it’s beta. The future has alot of Linux I am sure!
One little thing that so many people keep missing about Linux and retail, but which is life blood for the computer retailers in the bricks and mortar stores.. And as it happens, is a major turn off with Linux..
Secondary sales.
Even without Microsoft’s sneaky tactics, which are probable, but unproven, a retailer views a line better if it causes another sale. Or even better, needs to be maintained.
Sell someone a Linux netbook, and you sell a netbook. Not a Netbook, a virus scanner, some games and a whole bunch of accessories. You will be lucky if you even have a laptop bag small enough. And there will always be the few who refuse to listen when you tell them over and over that it is not Windows, until they come back and tell you that their Windows software will not run on it.
Even worse.. when that customer walks out the door, that is the last you will see them. No nice regular disinfectant bath to get rid of all the malware every few months.. No coming in to get more memory, or a better graphics card, or any number of lucrative secondary sales. All money that can’t really be made with Linux PCs.
The on-line merchants however are quite happy to sell Linux, because they sell to people who know what they want. No extras involved. Pile em high and sell em cheap.
Even though I’m an enthusiastic Linux user (installed Fedora 11 the day it was released). If I was in bricks and mortar retail, I’d avoid Linux too. Too many headaches, too few perks. And don’t even talk about some minimum wage sales assistant trying to help some poor customer pick out any Linux compatible hardware… I actually heard of someone trying to sell a Linux Netbook with a virus scanner CD.
@Garry
There is a way around the Windows tax. Buy from local system builders. They will put whatever you want on, use the parts you specify, and test and guarantee the box for you. I hope you at least tried to get the money that the Windows license costs from the manufacturer.
Let’s get away from US centric writing in the future and really examine what is happening WORLDWIDE with Linux netbook growth. (BTW- The US is not the center of the world) The kind of growth netbook Linux is experiencing is organic so can’t be so easily quantified. *Yes Windows still and will dominate- but there are encouraging signs. My computer dealer sells 5 or 6 models of notebooks and netbooks without any operating system at all. Very common in this HUGE MARKET. . Also by chance I came across a Lenovo netbook that had Splashtop Linux the other day at another dealer. Very nice Linux instant-on interface but I was unwilling to pay more for the mono culture XP OS. Linux at 10% is good enough for me and is likely to happen over time.
Reason six: Dell
The Dell Mini 10v (a very good value at $299) could previously be customized with WinXP or Ubuntu. They recently removed the choice of Ubuntu (Why?). The Mini 10 ($349) can still be configured with Ubuntu. Of course people with buy Windows, but it’s forced on them.
The grip that MS has on the average user that’s comfortable with the OS is astonishing. I had a coworker in the market for a Eee that was ONLY going to be used for email and web browsing. I tried explaining that the Linux option was perfect for those uses, yet 2 days later he was in the office with the XP Eee, asking if I could figure out why IE6 was crashing after 2 minutes of use (it was the Skype plugin). He also purchased Microsoft Office for it.
Don’t put too much hope in US figures. The lion’s share of netbook sales are going to EMEA http://blogs.zdnet.com/ITFacts/?p=15390. And one in four of them are running Linux http://www.cio.com/article/489120/Microsoft_Eating_Up_U.S._and_Global_Netbook_Markets.
Don’t put too much hope in US-based figures. The lion’s share of netbook sales are going to EMEA .
Going to EMEA: http://blogs.zdnet.com/ITFacts/?p=15390
And one in four of them are running Linux http://www.cio.com/article/489120/Microsoft_Eating_Up_U.S._and_Global_Netbook_Markets
No empire lasts forever. Microsoft will eventually go the way of ATamp;T, Standard Oil, IBM and GM. Won’t go away, but it’s monopoly position will weaken and the industry will move on.
No more than Henry Ford could keep others from building cars, can Microsoft stop the advance of open source. There are too many creative people out there who will put that public knowledge to work. It will just take time. Time enough for us old fogies who still use old fashioned computers in the old fashioned way (word processing, spreadsheets, e-mail and surfing) to die off.
But the future of open source will not necessarily be what it is today (word processing, spreadsheets, e-mail and surfing). It will probably be an unholy mix of this and that, nothing like what we’re used to.
It’s gonna be interesting.
While trying to find 1) a wholesaler that will supply the hard ware we need (for Feral penguin Computers), a price we like, we tried a number of Wholesalers, many of which promised us that they could get us Linux pre installed on hardware, and failed to deliver when it came to fulfilling orders for our customers, without exception none of them supplied what we wanted, and also without exception offered us Windows powered systems so we could fill our order. Big chain stores are only going to purchase on what’s available and price.
We finally, however, it’s only taken us 9 months, interesting gestation period, to locate a wholesaler (factory actually) that will supply us what we want.
I wonder why nobody seems to pay attention to a very interesting project: wine. I think that nothing will change unless ‘Joe User’ could run the same software he is used to run regardless the OS installed in his computer. Why is nobody mentioning/advocating/developing/putting some resources into wine (winehq.com)?. I’ve seen a lot of improvement in wine lately, but it still lacks what is needed to reach a ‘Joe User’ usability test.
Everywhere else in the world Football (Soccer) is a huge sport, but in the US it is a niche. Me thinks that Linux will be much the same. 5-10 years from now Linux is going to be huge all around the world but still have a niche interest in America.
John Bailey and Axel Antoni have it right – lack of secondary sales makes Linux unattractive to Bamp;M retailers.
However, there is a second issue that Linux people don’t like to face… many Netbooks with Linux had problems. FreeBooteR ditched Limpus. Lancest ditched SuSE. The majority of computer users won’t put up with having to solve problems.
At this point, Linux-for-netbook needs to concentrate on consistent quality, not on marketing issues. Do it right, then market it.
[…] During some recent trips to retail stores across North America, The VAR Guy spotted five clear examples why Windows will continue to dominate Linux on Netbooks. Here’s the scoop. […]
Like everything else open source takes a period of time for migration. MS dominated desktop then what happened over time; same with LAMP stack. Netbooks have been out for what …. 10 minutes. Give it some time, then we can talk.
I have just loaded my Dell inspiron 530 that had VISTA that crashed and of coarse (it had no recovery media and would not boot) to Ubuntu 9.04.
Complete recovery! Sooooooooo much better than any Microsoft O.S. All hardware working.
I also loaded Ubuntu 9.04 on a H.P pavilion Zv-6000 and every thing is working better than with the Microsoft XPP. All hardware is working fine, no bumps in the install.
The only thing this O.S. needs is similar application software that runs on the Microsoft platform.
I am new to this O.S. and have no knowledge of program writing but what I see is very good. Way to go Ubuntu folks.
Linux is smoking!!!!
I agree with a lot that’s said here…but the problem is Linux in the consumer market is pretty much a grassroots effort. As long as people see all those Windows and Mac commercials, that’s what they expect to get and will return those Linux machines they bought at Best Buy when they find out they can’t load some off the shelf piece of software (never knowing they could have gotten something with similar functionality for free). For the most part Linux is there as a desktop, although I would love to see stuff like compiz get a bit more stable as lots of consumers love those silly effects, and what it really needs is a good advertising campaign. Unfortunately who will pay to advertise what they’re giving away? But the fact is getting in the minds of the average consumer still does drive corporate sales. I think it could be reasonably done if the major Linux vendors joined forces to launch a Linux ad campaign…
Comment #11 posted a link to Groklaw and I see no response to it.
When the Taiwanese OEM Chief says be afraid of
M$ what else can he mean but that they are threatened by the convicted monopolist and will toe the line rather than see their PC lines compromised
I’m glad I don’t have to depend on Microcenter, Staples or those M$ shops for my computing needs
in case you have not noticed, they are festooned with posters and what not, that they receive a good sum of money, and or discounts to display.
@The Var Guy
I find it hard to believe that Microsoft didn’t pull some dirty tricks to take back the netbook market.
Consider this, before Windows XP was even on netbooks, the market exploded – this is *the very reason* Microsoft had to drop its prices to next to nothing. Why then do people think that everyone wanted XP? These things were selling like hotcakes before XP was even on netbooks.
Socceroos: Comment #11 covers some of the alleged moves. But The VAR Guy can’t comment directly on those allegations. Yes, Microsoft will need to compete aggressively on price in the netbook market… …
Curious to see if/how Google Android changes the netbook competitive landscape…