High-flying Apple‘s (AAPL) iPad may be in for more turbulence with the tablet projected by one prominent analyst to recoil from an expected 21 million-unit booming holiday season to a pedestrian 10.9 million units in Q1 2015—a 55 percent downturn.

According to a new report from noted Apple watcher Ming-Chi Kuo, as recounted by 9to5Mac, not only will iPad sales shrink noticeably in Q1 but also Apple’s 12.9-inch iPad Pro may be held back from mass production until Q2 2015, delayed by the time required to produce and assemble an oxide panel to provide “high resolution, quick response and high color saturation.”

Last month, Apple unwrapped a new 6.1mm thin iPad Air 2 and an iPad Mini 3, both of which feature the vendor’s fingerprint security sensor. The iPad Air 2 is priced at $499 to $829 depending on configuration, while the iPad Mini costs shoppers anywhere from $399 to $729.

Kuo believes that in Q4 Apple will sell some 10.9 million iPad Air 2 units, 2.5 million each of the iPad Air and iPad Mini 3 models, 2 million iPad Mini 2 units and 3.5 million iPad Minis for a total of 21.5 million units. However, in Q1 2015, the vendors sales figures will roll back significantly for all of its tablets except for the iPad Mini 3, which will fall by only 6 percent quarter over quarter, he said.

“We forecast iPad shipments will fall 54.5 percent QoQ to 9.8mn units in 1Q15, given a lack of new applications, tablet market saturation and slow season … ” Kuo wrote, as recounted by 9to5Mac. “We believe that, in a major shift, while Apple (US) used to be able to use new form factor designs to boost demand, it has failed to do so this time around. The lighter and thinner iPad Air 2 will face strong headwinds in increasing sales in 1Q15, we believe; we also hold that this means that iPad, along with the entire tablet market, is faced with structural challenges characterized by a lack of new applications and market saturation.”

Apple’s iPad sales have slipped noticeably in the past three quarters and, in the vendor’s just completed fiscal Q4 2014, tablet revenue fell 14 percent from the same time last year to $5.4 billion as unit sales tumbled nearly 13 percent to 12.3 million. For the moment, Apple chief executive Tim Cook seems unfazed by the iPad’s flagging performance, calling it a “speed bump” the company will overcome.

“Saturation fears are overblown,” Cook said last month, pointing to untapped demand and dismissing fears that the iPhone 6 phablet will further erode iPad sales.