Gartner expects PC shipments to grow 15.9 percent in 2011. Sounds impressive, until you look at Gartner’s original prediction of 18.1 percent growth. What triggered the reduced growth rate? Part of the blame involves — you guessed it — rising sales of tablet computers, coupled with weaker consumer demand. And by 2014, tablet sales will displace roughly 10 percent of the PC market. Here’s the update.

So will 2014 really be the Year of the Tablet … or is it part of a bigger trend in purpose-built machines? Thin-client specialist Wyse Technology thinks the PC has already been dying off as we know it. The company says Q3 revenues for 2010 were the best in Wyse’s history. Wyse and Gartner each seem to indicate that the mobile workforce and mobile use will cause more and more users to buy tablets and thin clients.

Still, let’s keep things in perspective. The PC market is expected to grow nearly 16 percent in 2011… Pretty darn impressive for a 30-year-old market, don’t you think?

Plus, The VAR Guy doubts users are going to fully abandon PCs for tablets. To understand why, just read this blog about the limitations of using a tablet for all of your computing needs.

For tablets to disrupt 10 percent of the PC market by 2014, tablet makers will need to adopt an OS  that blends a traditional file-system approach to computing with the purpose-built functionality that draws people into tablets and their applications. Manipulation of files independent of apps is key. Try and imagine the new 11 inch MacBook Air… without the keyboard. Imagine it’s running OS X Lion or some other touch-friendly OS. Now that would be compelling…

In the meantime, the PC market continues to enjoy double-digit growth. Not too shabby.

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