Linux Netbook Sales: Suffering From More Market Shrinkage?
The VAR Guy thinks Linux Netbooks may have fallen into a pool filled with chilly water. The apparent result: Continued market shrinkage. Alas, The VAR Guy doesn’t have official market data to share. But three pieces of circumstantial evidence suggest the Linux Netbook market continues to decline in North America while the Apple iPad and tablets continue to rise. Here’s why.
In recent weeks, The VAR Guy has visited Dell.com, System76.com and ZaReason.com. During the height of the netbook craze, each of those PC makers prominently promoted Linux and Ubuntu netbooks. Check the sites now and all three companies seemed to have backed away from Linux netbooks. And Dell’s old Ubuntu site (www.dell.com/Ubuntu) seems dead — though if you look closely enough you will find some Ubuntu systems on Dell’s site. Plus, Dell is working closely with Canonical — the company behind Ubuntu — in the cloud computing market.
Still, where have all the Linux netbooks gone? Back in 2008, they were available from major retailers across North America before the netbook market began to shift to Windows. Now those Linux netbooks are nowhere to be found in North America retail stores, and somewhat difficult to find online. Here’s some perspective from System76 President Carl Richell.
The VAR Guy: Have you ever offered netbooks?
Richell: We offered netbooks for a while; however, the product was discontinued last year. We conduct regular baseline performance and quality standards reviews. Smooth HD video playback became a baseline performance requirement for System76 products. The Atom architecture did not meet the requirement.
The VAR Guy: Is the netbook market still viable or did it die?
Richell: It’s viable as a niche, but I don’t think the industry is interested. System76 isn’t interested in niche’s either. We’ll see what happens when Intel’s Medfield and new quad core ARM chips arrive.
The VAR Guy: How are things at System76? Any business updates or trends to share?
Richell: It’s an absolute joy building this company and working with the amazing team we have here. We’re finding success for our story and products around every corner and growing at a breakneck pace. And we’re creating new technology. In our view, the customer experience as a whole defines System76 – from sales questions, to the order process, to the product, and finally support. [This week] we’ll launch new technology that greatly enhances the customer experience. One could think of it as Launchpad — the central collection of tools used to develop Ubuntu — except completely focused on the System76 customer experience.
Computing in general is entering a new phase. Innovation is alive again! The industry is chaotic. There will be winners and losers. I think Ubuntu and System76 are on the winning side.
Proper Perspective
The VAR Guy thinks it’s safe to assume Linux netbooks, particularly in North America, have faced three obvious challenges:
- The tablet craze;
- The rise of Windows 7, which gave Microsoft a good story on netbooks (though even Microsoft has reported a big decline in netbook sales);
- The less-than-stellar power and performance of some netbooks.
Still, this blog isn’t predicting doom and gloom for Linux. Richell remains upbeat about the overall Linux market. And there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that Ubuntu and other Linux variants — Android, anyone? — will continue to evolve for new computing form factors. (The VAR Guy needs to check in with Canonical for additional insights.)
But when it comes to the Linux Netbook craze in North America, it seems to have come and gone as fast as the pet rock — sinking quickly to the bottom of a chilly pool. Shrinkage. Ouch.
I never wanted a netbook. They were cramped and 95% of them was crap wrt build quality and so on. A lot of them had Intel GMA which was trash by most standards, and even more so with Linux.
Have anyone ever seen a netbook with a GOOD user interface? HP Mini ME was afaik the only one, and it was pulled shortly after arrival. None of the other *nix UI were any good (KDE netbook plasma was a very late arrival), and W7 or XP didn’t suit.
I don’t really believe Intel liked them either – they wanted to sell higher spec.
As Linux concerned I would never buy crap hardware just because it is delivered with Linux, and in my view that has been a showstopper wrt sales from any OEM (apart from ZAreason System76 and Emperor Linux who spezializes in Linux.
I never found a decent Dell with Ubuntu on it (they did what they could to avoid selling it), and HP (who sells with SLED) hides it the best they could. Sharade.
The best laptops for Linux are the Thinkpads (X/T/W), and even if I have to get the W7 licence I don’t want, it is still worth it.
If I want a small laptop I’ll pick the Thinkpad X (12″) series any day, and if they are beyond budget – find a 2nd hand one (they are better than a new laptop at same price) – they will still last for many many years.
I never used Linux to save money on the OS – I use it because it’s better, and I don’t really want to use crap hardware.
The problem with netbooks is they suck in general . It doesn’t matter what operating system is running on them. Why would I pay $400+ for a small “Limited” machine when I can just get a full fetched laptop for the same price range?
My only full system purchase since my original 486sx25 w/ 4 megs RAM and a 130 meg hard drive, back in the early 90s, was a Linux-based netbook, one of the generation 1.5 Acer Aspire Ones. Other than that, I’ve always upgraded what I had a piece or three at a time.
And while I’m in the US, I had to order even that netbook from Canada, Dual EN/FR keyboard and all, because Acer apparently wasn’t interested in selling the Linux version in the US.
But I got in at the right time, as I got the 8″ screen, big “enough” but bigger would be less portable, a proper SATA interface on the hard drive (I got the 120 gig “spinning rust” drive, but it has been good to me), and not that I could know it at the time, but MOST importantly, I got in before Intel jumped the shark on its netbooks with their freedomware incompatible graphics.
Plus of course the distro it came with wasn’t the best, but it’s running Gentoo (built in a 32-bit chroot on my main machine, installed via thumb-drive, rsync over ssh upgraded) now. The distro was thus no big deal here, but I would have rather simply done without than be an MS statistic, so getting a Linux of SOME sort was important enough to order from Canada.
No WONDER the niche died, at least here in the US. Fighting to even GET Linux on the systems, then about time they actually get high enough capacity to be more than toys, Intel pulls the no-decent-freedomware-graphics-driver (really, no decent Linux graphics freedomware or not) crap so the only decently functioning systems are MS, and then MS chokes the life out of them!
Oh, well, I’m glad I got it while the getting was good! I use the main system at home, but the netbook is great to take with me. Among other things, it has replaced the 20 kg or so of reference books I used to haul around and I’ll sure miss it when it dies! I had a feeling that the whole netbook thing was a bit too good to last, the reason I jumped on it in the first place. And I’m glad I did!
VAR Guy, Your talking out of your rear exhaust pipe. Criticising Linux Netbook Sales in the States, You know as well as the rest of us, Microsoft has got the states tied up, where nothing is sold without windows being installed on it, from every outlet. After reading your article in MS being the biggest cloud software manufactures, You didn’t mentioned anything about the world wide leap year shut down of Microsoft’s cloud system, another boo boo like the stock market fiasco, when the worlds stock markets came to a stand still,
You need to do a little research into how many countries have moved to FOSS, in the news this week Africa has dropped windows for FOSS. to save billions of dollars on Microsoft’s annual taxes. MS as becoming insignificant, and will be more so after they have released windows 8,
Read this
Microsoft Misses Another Easy Cloud-Mobile Connection.
http://itknowledgeexchange.techtarget.com/mobile-cloud-view/microsoft-misses-another-easy-cloud-mobile-connection/
According to several people I’ve talked to at Zareason, their Teo-pro netbook has been their all time best selling product. They are currently building their next generation netbook and will sell it soon. They have not yet given me their timeline for when it will be released but they have promised to email when they have a better idea.
As far as Linux not having a large netbook presence several things are worth pointing out.
1) Netbook sales are down as their extreme portability is in competition with the tablet market.
2) Only people already familiar with Linux were going to buy from System 76 or Zareason and to buy a Linux netbook from Dell you had to go online which once again limited it to those that were already familiar with Linux.
3) The Linux netbooks that were sold in box stores sucked. A lot of early ones had bad hardware, and they all used unpopular versions of Linux as opposed to offering Ubuntu, Fedora, Mint, SUSE, Debian, etc.
I love my Linux netbook, and I’m sure my next computer (not counting tablets) will also be a netbook from Zareason with LMDE Xfce edition preinstalled with the exact partition tables I ask them to use.
I have just read this article Africa Embraces Free Software.
The writer has the same opinion I have about windows 8, After trying out the windows 8 consumer release. it’s the last nail in the coffin. It’s no wonder MS want to get manufactures to install Microsoft’s secure boot, where by no other operating systems or software can be installed on systems. locking users into windows 8 and window application software.
The quicker MS windows dies the better.
http://beginlinux.com/blog/2012/03/tlwir-34-africa-embraces-free-software/
I still use an Asus Eee 1005P which I bought for $250 two years ago. If I could choose I would bought the same netbook again. It was a cheapest new computer at the market, with impressive 8-10 h of battery, and even if the drawback is low CPU performance, it suites my needs perfectly.
In Europe you could send back the MS sticker to Asus and they would pay you back 5 Euro (that’s kind of a sad joke, but at least you would let them know you don’t won’t windows). I’ve replaced windows 7 with Arch Linux and this small thing came to life immediately.
I use it for writing articles, presentations, software development (vim goes perfectly with it’s small keyboard) and of course all email and internet activity. At home I connect it to the monitor and wireless keyboard and mouse. At work I use desktop and I just synchronize the data between my two machines at the end of the day. I don’t need anything larger then it’s 10 inches, and anything more expensive.
I hope netbooks (small but being a real computers) are not going to be replaced with toys like tablets. With good lightweight Linux their performance is just ok, but they overwhelm full size laptops with size and battery life.
The problem is System76 is an Intel-only shop, and Intel didn’t like the netbook market. System76 locked themselves into 32 bit processors by not choosing much more appropriate 64 bit processors by AMD or VIA. Even with the extremely sub-optimal Atom, they could have added a dedicated video chip like the Nvidia solutions used by Asus.
The real failure was a failure of creativity for System76. By insisting on Intel-only, they doomed their own efforts, and did not serve customer needs. I chose an Acer Aspire One with Ubuntu and an AMD processor because it was a real netbook, not some attempt to force a Wintel platform, when Intel and Microsoft were trying to kill the market segment. If System76 or another Linux VAR had offered a real netbook I would have purchased it from them to support the Linux market.
Further, if someone offered a VIA nano netbook with a video processor and automatic encryption, I would jump on that. The Linux netbook market is still out there. System76 should quit copying the Wintel platform and build a netbook that actually makes sense if they want to succeed. My family mostly uses the aforementioned Aspire One with Ubuntu and an HP mini with Joli because they are so convenient.
The upcoming second generation Intel Ultrabook with battery backup of nearly 12 hours will be the future…
http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/sponsors-of-tomorrow/ultrabook.html
Once you start using Linux you will understand that Microsoft Wndows was absolute crap….i recommend Linux Mint 12 Gnome with Cinnamon desktop….
http://linuxmint.com/
http://cinnamon.linuxmint.com/
I agree with several others on this. There is no substitute for a keyboard for getting work done. Ubuntu has come up with a good idea to even get one attached to a cellphone. Other than that, you can not get any real work done with a cellphone or tablet. They are only toys, or books at best.
I have an Acer running Ubuntu that is a few years old, and I love it. I set it up dual boot, but never use the Windows (XP) part. You can’t beat the battery life, and being able to hold it in one hand while typing with the other. I hope someone jumps into the niche.
The short version of this piece:
Netbooks have almost vanished from the mkt. Where’d the Linux netbooks go? Same place the Windows ones went, which we all knew already.
I had an EeePC 1000. (two actually. One for me and one for my wife)
When I bought it for $386 the $400 laptop did not yet exist. I also liked the SSD it had. It was not may main machine but it was a very convenient portable device. It had excellent wireless connectivity and did not come with WinXP. The Xandros OS it came with was horrible so I loaded Ubuntu on it and was happy with that until I discovered Linux Mint.
I was able to do real work on it with Linux mint. I no longer use it as I have replaced it with an Asus Transformer, with the keyboard dock. Sometimes I use it as a laptop, and sometimes I use it as a tablet.
I loaded up Mint 11 on the EeePC 1000 and sold it to a friend for only $100 and he is pleased with it. It does what he wants and it’s a great deal at that price. (I tossed in a 17″ CRT monitor for free that was collecting dust)
I’m actually writing this on my classic System76 Starling 1 netbook – dual-core Atom, 1 GB RAM, and 160 GB disk, for which my wife paid $360 a few years back. The original Ubuntu that came with it has long since end of lifed; late last year I installed a stock Ubuntu 11.10, and it still works like a champ.
System76 really builds them to last.
I’m using it heavily this week at PyCon, the annual Python programming language convention. While I also have an iPad with me, the iPad can’t run Python or the many other developer tools we’re exploring, and it’s suitable only for taking short notes rather than the extensive info I’ve captured thus far.
Sometimes I just need a keyboard and general purpose computer. The Starling is a real winner.
In Europe, Dell markets a lot of portables with either DOS or Linux, no Micro$oft tax so the need for a Linux netbook is not real. These are not low end portables but even top line models with Intel i7-26xx processors and stacks of ram, dedicated graphics cards, mostly Nvidia. HP also markets some but the offferings are not top end or as many.
Kudos to Dell.
@Opis:
Dell’s Linux offerings (desktop/laptop) is hidden, and the specs are trash. No one really find it interesting, and Linux users that genuinly want to buy with Linux preinstalled gives up very fast. I consider it faux.
HP does in fact have quite many laptops available with Linux, but you won’t find Linux with the consumer crap. You’ll find it amongst the “pro” machines at their website.
HP’s Linux range is way way better than Dell’s and they are more forthcoming when you contact them for ordering one too.
HP is not my cup of tea, but they are actually provide the best spread of hardware with Linux.
http://h71028.www7.hp.com/enterprise/cache/569891-0-0-0-121.html?jumpid=reg_r1002_uken
A netbook is all I take when traveling (business or leisure). When flying in coach and the seat in front is reclined, you can still use it with the screen fully open. Can’t do that even with an “ultrabook”. I travel light, and while an iPad weighs less, it is too limited to be usable as an only device.
While it would be nice to have Linux pre-installed, I figure that the cost of MS Windows Starter is offset by the fees payed by all the crapware vendors to have their stuff loaded, so I’m not losing anything when wiping it all and installing Ubuntu or whatever.
The VAR Guy just wanted to say he has emerged from the pool and he’s been reading the comments above. Plenty of healthy chatter. Two topics that caught The VAR Guy’s attention:
1. Ultrabooks: Where will Linux fit in? Any major OEM deals so far?
2. Ubuntu for emerging mobile devices: Very curious about this. Canonical has tried for years to promote a so-called Mobile Internet Device (MID) market. Then iPad came along. Watching to see how device manufactures may fit Ubuntu into their portfolio…
-TVG
1: Wrt Ultrabooks, Linux will continue to have the same advantages and disadvantages as it has with laptops. The ultrabook is just laptop evolution, not revolution. The main difference is that to achieve low weight and prolonged battery time users had to pay more – for poor performance. As even Microsoft were forced to do some inhouse cleaning in Windows after the Vista spectacle, spec is less of an issue and I presume this will be even more so with W8. The chipmakers are getting way more performance with lower thermal/Wh impact, and that is significant.
In terms of OEMs and Ubuntu/Linux I still believe that there are a coupple of showstoppers that prevents Linux progress on Laptops/Ultrabooks:
– More of the distros have to go for pure desktop (no server stuff and desktop optimised kernel – with a single DE. If they want access to the mainstream market they’ll have to go mainstream. If they want to stick to the enthusiast userbase they can do whatever they are doing right now.
– The application clusters (Qt/GTK++) will have to progress significantly wrt modernising their user interfaces and make the applications UI’s more coherent. It’s about making the applications integrate better into different DE’s and different formfactors. Further, they have to take a serious look at workflow at all levels. Apple does that better than anyone else, but there’s still huge potential.
Let me provide some backround from “my world” which is KDE:
Due to their heavy investment in new formfactors they are breaking down applications into modules based upon function thus laying the basis for combining the functions into new applications and different usage. The functions are then optimised and code cleaned and rationalised.
They are aalso separating the UX from the functionality. This will allow for workflow orientation and it will enable easy adaptation of the same code/functions for a broad spectre of formfactors while providing DE’s which are optimal for each formfactor.
However, when looking at “core applications” for KDE, they are not coherent. DigiKam, Kontact, Amarok, KdenLive, Calligra (Koffice) all have different UX and they really need to get together and create a common user experience.
– The control/administration must be simplified without dumbing down the users. E.g KDE is fantastic from a technological perspective and users can adjust their experience however they want. But the administration and management of the excellent functionality and performance is not for the mainstream user. It must make sense to average Joe.
I’ve argued this before, and don’t really expect anyone to agree. The question is whether any distro, or DE want to go mainstream and whether their userbase will allow it. Probably not. Ubuntu clearly want to, but are suffering from resistance amongst their own users.
I belive Ubuntu have to shift everything desktop into separate repo(s), and distance themselves further from other DE’s to progress their success into mainstream. I’ll leave their choices wrt Unity (i.e good or bad) for a different debate as it becomes increasingly a question about preference and not quality.
2: Ubuntu Vs mobile devices (pune intended):
Remember how Microsoft adapted (not) XP to Tablets? It didn’t work and that approach never will.
If Ubuntu want to succeed on pads, smartmo (and TV) they will have to realise (maybe they do) that different formfactors have different characteristics, different usage patterns and different requirements to UX, ecosystems and applications.
One size will never fit all.
My IMPRESSION (not stating the facts here), is that instead of taking advantage of the unique features of the different formfactors, they are trying to Ubuntify the various formfactors. My faith in that approach is rather limited.
Offcourse everything is different now than with XP Tablets, but the principle behind its failure is the very same as the obstacles Ubuntu is facing. The have to start from the formfactor(s)and the optimal UX++ for each. Squeezing Unity to fit won’t work.
It’s the same challenge that Microsoft faces with Metro. One size won’t fit all, and where Ubuntu faces trouble scaling down – Metro faces trouble scaling up.
1: Ultrabooks:
Forgot to mention perhaps the most significant:
Even though Office Suites are becoming increasingly irrelevant (goes for both Microsoft Office and LibreOffice) they are still THE most significant application combo in virtually every users mindset.
It doesn’t really matter which one is the best. What matters is that the Microsoft formats became ISO certified (and thereby standard for public sector and so on), while Microsoft were allowed to keep propietary blockers effectively preventing safe and sensible usage by e.g LibreOffice.
MSO got the mindshare and their formats ensures that this will continue.
That’s the real showstopper. Remove that one, and the entire PC/Laptop/Desktop/Ultrabook market is up for grabs.
Jack: The VAR Guy is very, very intrigued by the whole Metro discussion. There won’t be a middle ground with Metro. Either a huge hit (like Win95) or a certified failure (like New Coke).
-TVG