steveballmer

Sure, conventional wisdom suggests Ballmer may ultimately lose the CEO post as Microsoft strives to remain relevant in the post-PC era.

But check out a thesis shared earlier today on CNBC, which goes something like this:

1. Apple (AAPL) is hot right now, but the company’s sky-high valuation depends on very few products and software platforms — most notably Mac OS X running on desktops and notebooks, and Apple iOS running on iPads and iPhones. If Apple’s closed platform approach somehow gets disrupted, the company is hosed.

2. Google (GOOG) was super-hot during most of 2011, but the company’s continued reliance on Internet advertising dollars makes it susceptible to a single, game-changing knock-out punch that nobody has quite imagined so far.

3. Microsoft (MSFT) is highly diversified in its consumer, small business, server and cloud software portfolio. Even as Windows desktop and mobile sales slipped six percent last quarter, corporate customers continued to increase spending on Exchange, Lync, SharePoint, Dynamics CRM and Windows Server. That revenue diversity ensures Microsoft’s long-term health — especially as the company preps Windows 8 for tablets, mobile and desktop computers.

Heck, even BusinessWeek suggests that Microsoft now has the best product lineup in its history.

The VAR Guy’s Opinion

The VAR Guy admits: He’s intrigued by the CNBC thesis. Everybody remembers how highly profitable, monolithic technology companies have previously imploded. IBM’s dependence on mainframes nearly destroyed Big Blue in the early 1990s. Digital Equipment Corp.’s laser-like focus on minicomputers ultimately upended the company before it was sold to Compaq Computer in the last 1990s.

Could Apple and Google suffer those same fates? And will Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer survive to have the last laugh — yet again?

The VAR Guy will ponder that question for quite some time…