VMware, Nicira, Cisco: Three’s Company or A Crowd?
EMC, VMware (VMW) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) continue to partner on VCE. But Nicira news, developments and milestones at VMworld 2013 may introduce new stress on the VMware-Cisco relationship, The VAR Guy has heard. Here’s the chatter.
It sounds like VMware NSX — Nicira’s next generation software-defined networking (SDN) technology — will enjoy a bright spotlight at VMworld. Some pundits think VMware’s SDN strategy is a huge threat to Cisco’s established networking dominance. Taken one step further, Nicira could put new stress on the VCE business — which includes investments from Cisco, EMC and VMware.
Keeping Score
What’s the truth? The VAR Guy thinks Cisco’s networking empire won’t collapse anytime soon. But he offers these three reality checks:
- The Good: Cisco has pumped nearly $500 million into VCE so far. EMC, VMware and Cisco have each seen VCE’s upside (i.e., customer adoptions). There’s no way Cisco will walk away from that success anytime soon. Overall, The VAR Guy believes Cisco, VMware and EMC are firmly committed — at least financially — to VCE’s ongoing success.
- The Chatter: While top Cisco executives will continue to publicly endorse VCE, keep a really, really, really close eye on Cisco’s marketing efforts. As VMworld approaches and VMware’s Nicira push enters the spotlight, it’s a safe bet Cisco will turn down its VCE messaging volume even while continuing to jointly fund VCE.
- The Speculation: Cisco and NetApp (NTAP) get far tighter, perhaps inviving Citrix Systems (CTXS) to the party. Sure, that speculation has been around for quite some time. But it’s getting louder again.
What does The VAR Guy know for sure? VMworld is approaching. VMware’s SDN and software-defined data center (SDDC) ambitions are real. The VMware NSX noise will be very loud starting at VMworld.
I would take a peak at Nimble
I would take a peak at Nimble as a Storage company for Cisco. The Sr. VP/CFO of Cisco sets on Nimble’s Board
Anonymous: We’ll give it a
Anonymous: We’ll give it a look…
-jp
Ultimately, the strength of
Ultimately, the strength of the relationship will depend on the strength of the business. Regardless of how much of the spotlight Nicira gets, until they start winning business en masse, it’s just “that SDN company VMW overpaid for.”
Everyone I talk to “knows a guy”, so it’s hard to tell what the really good intel is, but I hear Nicira revenue targets remain modest in 2013, it’s first full year after acquisition. Even if you assume 400% growth next year, it still looks like drops in a bucket compared to the bigger EMC/Cisco business.
What I do think is interesting is if Cisco tries to make any substantial announcement during VMWorld. Again, everyone knows a guy, so timing rumors seem to be driven by speculation. November sounds more real to me, but unfortunately while I know a bunch of guys, none of them talk to me about details.
(And in case that wasn’t obvious enough – I have no idea when Insieme gets announced.)
-Mike Bushong (@mbushong)
Plexxi
Mike: Great points all
Mike: Great points all around. Your point about “strength of relationship” reminds me a little of the old Bronx Zoo (New York Yankees). The individuals fought a bit but when they were winning all those personal issues were put aside…
Or as Al Davis used to say: Just Win, Baby.
-jp
“perhaps inviving Citrix
“perhaps inviving Citrix Systems (CTXS) to the party.”
I dont think “inviving” is a word I am currently familiar or have a solid understanding at this juncture in my life. I am equlally confued as to the context and it relationship to the english language.
Anonymous: Oops. You caught
Anonymous: Oops. You caught us. I was about to fix the typo based on your comment, but instead we’ve decided to leave it in — giving you full credit for the catch. Sorry about the poor spell check on our part and thanks for your readership.
-jp