Black Friday: Tech-Spending Increase or Decrease?

Today – love it or hate it – is that most auspicious of American days: Black Friday and the onslaught of holiday-focused consumerism. However, the extent of that consumerism this year, especially on the tech side, is a matter of debate.

Consulting firm Oliver Wyman says six out of 10 consumers will cut their spending in at least one area of communications and media entertainment, while ABI Research says 40 percent of the people it surveyed plan to increase tech spending for Christmas (and Hanukkah and Kwanzaa and Christmakkah).

If negative consumer sentiment prevails over the next year, said Mark Teitell, a partner in Oliver Wyman’s Communications, Media and Technology practice, the overall impact will be a 5-6 percent drop in tech-sector sales.

ABI Research also says consumer electronics makers and retailers are “right to expect difficult times ahead.” That’s from Michael Wolf, research director, who added, “We also believe that there are certain segments that will fare better than others, including digital TVs and video game software.” (Hmmm, sounds like media entertainment to us, Oliver Wyman.)

Another conflicting finding: Oliver Wyman found Blu-ray player purchases will increase by 140 percent. ABI Research found quite the opposite – only 8 percent of its respondents planned to buy one of the machines.

One area where the consultancies agree is that HDTV purchases will go up, likely due to the looming DTV transition.

Oliver Wyman further said smartphone purchases will jump by 9 percent, a number we question, given the cost and families’ cutbacks.

Oliver Wyman surveyed more than 500 adults; ABI Research canvassed 1,600 households.