How Low Can PC Shipments Go?

Worldwide PC shipments continue their freefall, but the decline is speeding up every month. Thanks to the massive consumer and business demand for smartphones and tablets, PC sales are declining at a faster rate than any of the leading research firms expected.

Just four months ago, research powerhouse IDC forecasted PC shipments would fall 9.7 percent in 2013 from 2012. However, with just 3 weeks left in the year, IDC now forecasts that PC shipments will drop more than 10 percent to 314.2 million.

Breaking down the numbers a bit further, the consumerization of IT is causing the biggest fall of in the consumer space with regards to PC purchases. With more applications being developed for mobile devices than for PCs by a wide margin, consumers are relying more on these devices for most of their communications, Internet and even productivity needs.

As a result, consumer shipments are now expected to drop a whopping 15 percent this year from 2012, according to IDC. Commercial shipments are expected to decrease 5 percent.

Interestingly, emerging markets are expected to see a larger-than-expected drop than more mature markets. Again, this is attributable to wider adoption of mobile devices. Specifically, shipments in emerging markets are now expected to drop 11 percent to 182.1 million this year, according to IDC. By comparison, PC shipments in more mature markets are forecasted to drop 8 percent to 132 million.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) seems to be faring a bit better than its competition in this area, although the company has bigger fish to fry, and recently said year-over-year PC sales declined just 2 percent for its October quarter compared to the year-earlier period.

Solution providers have been preparing for this and developing device management, security and application development around mobility. In line with this, IDC predicts smartphone shipments will rise 39 percent this year to 1.01 billion, more than three times’ PC shipments. Further, tablet shipments are expected to jump 58 percent to 227 million.

As for next year, IDC continues to see PC shipments drop another 3.8 percent and then start stabilizing. The research firm currently expects worldwide PC shipments to rise slightly to 305.1 million for 2017, which would barely put it above 2008 levels.

To be honest, I don’t think they will get back over 300 million by that time. This freefall is accelerating and mobile device adoption continues to explode. Follow the money. Software application spending for mobile devices will continue to outpace applications for PCs and the gap will continue to grow. Keep building your expertise around mobile device management.

Knock ’em alive!