Apple Watch Preview: Pricing to Expect in Apple’s Reveal

Well, today’s the day at Apple’s (AAPL) Yerba Buena Center event in San Francisco when we’ll likely learn a whole lot more about the Watch, not just features and apps but also pricing.

Ah, the pricing. Apple has said precious few words about how the device will be priced. What do we know so far? Not a lot–$349 for an entry level model. So, what about the remaining configurations, sizes, models and options, what are they going to cost?

This past weekend, Daring Fireball came out with interesting speculation on how Apple could price the Watch’s various iterations, recounting that Apple’s initial pitch for the Watch was customization, specifically, the user’s ability to make choices in models and interchangeable bands. With an entry-level Watch priced at $349 and a band costing another $150 or so, many users may be hoping to get in and out for about $500.

But there may be more to it than that. As Daring Fireball wrote, the three families of the Apple Watch–Sport, Steel, and Edition–might be priced as a continuum, starting at $349 and running up to $10,000.

For the 38mm/42mm Watch sizes, here’s Daring Fireball’s latest musing on price ahead of today’s reveal:

• Apple Watch Sport (all colors, with Sport Band): $349/$399
• Apple Watch, Steel, Sport Band: $749/$799
• Apple Watch, Steel, Classic Buckle: $849/$899
• Apple Watch, Steel, Milanese Loop: $949/$999
• Apple Watch, Steel, Modern Buckle (38mm only): $1199
• Apple Watch, Steel, Leather Loop (42mm only): $1299
• Apple Watch, Steel, Link Bracelet: $1499/$1599
• Apple Watch, Steel space black, Link Bracelet: $1899/$1999
• Apple Watch Edition, Sport Band: $7499/$7999
• Apple Watch Edition, Modern Buckle (38mm only): $9999
• Apple Watch Edition, Classic Buckle (42mm only): $10,999

Keep in mind that Apple chief Tim Cook is calling the Apple Watch the next big thing in the company’s storied history–right up there with the Apple II, Mac, iPod, iPhone and iPad.

But, as Daring Fireball points out, at $349 to start, the Apple Watch ante is lower than any other potential flagship product in the company’s history–$50 less than the iPod cost $399, $150 lower than the initial iPad and $250 than the first price set for the iPhone. Unlike the other Apple flagship products, it’s actually the dizzying array of choices that makes for the extended price continuum. 

So, will the Watch’s breakthrough ultimately reside in its utility, style, customization, apps, or something else? Late last week, TechCrunch wrote that one of the initial conclusions of “several sources who have spent extended time” with the Watch is “how little you use your iPhone once you have one.”

In other words, users toting an Apple Watch won’t be pulling their iPhone out of their pockets to check on this, that and the other thing but instead will interact with their Watch.

That behavioral change alone could make the Watch the next big thing.