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 Channel Futures

Open Source


Is Red Hat VP Attempting to Rally Investors?

  • Written by The VAR Guy 1
  • July 8, 2008

Tom McCallum, VP of investor relations at Red Hat, is diving into some rather interesting waters. Red Hat’s stock has dipped a bit following the company’s June 25 earnings announcement. Now for the twist: McCallum on July 7 wrote a blog that attempts to clarify Red Hat’s financial momentum.

McCallum’s blog entry is a good read for anyone who wants to get up to speed on Red Hat’s business. But… The VAR Guy wonders… is McCallum trying to tactfully rally investors around Red Hat?

The VAR Guy needs to be extra clear here: He’s not accusing McCallum of any wrongdoing. McCallum’s blog entry goes to great lengths to mention how specific members of the financial analyst community reacted to Red Hat’s June 25 earnings announcement. Overall, it’s a balanced, fact-filled blog entry that doesn’t hype Red Hat. In fact, it includes some negative comments from analysts.

But this portion of McCallum’s blog entry really caught The VAR Guy’s eye:

“A number of investors and analysts said that they would have liked to see higher billings growth in the quarter, but they noted that the additional color on the solid bookings that was discussed on the [earnings] call was very helpful. Overall, Red Hat’s earnings were solid, especially considering the current challenges of the economy.”

Ahem. Is McCallum saying Red Hat deserves more credit (i.e., a higher share price?) for its most recent quarterly results, based on solid bookings?

That’s pure speculation on The VAR Guy’s part. But consider this: Red Hat shares rose steadily from $16.58 on March 17 to $24.36 on May 30, according to Yahoo finance. Since that time, Red Hat shares have fallen considerably to $20.53 on July 7, and a good portion of the decline occurred after the June 25 earnings release.

Still, McCallum certainly sounds upbeat about Red Hat’s long-term prospects. And he should, considering Red Hat’s position on the server, and the continued growth of Linux-driven solutions.

The key point here: According to Red Hat’s blog archives, McCallum has posted three blogs so far this year to the Red Hat site. Is McCallum diving into dangerous waters by blogging about Red Hat’s financial results — even if the blog entries have the best of intentions?

Full disclosure: The VAR Guy doesn’t own any Red Hat shares as of this writing. But he has considered buying a few shares in recent days.

Tags: Agents Cloud Service Providers MSPs VARs/SIs Open Source

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5 comments

  1. Avatar JT Hatter July 8, 2008 @ 4:20 pm
    Reply

    RHT is still a great longterm play. Linux, open source, servers, virtualization, middleware are all in growth mode.

  2. Avatar JOHN July 9, 2008 @ 6:03 am
    Reply

    Of Course McCallum is trying to rally investors, after all it is his job as VP of “investor relations” to put public information in the most meaningful light, that’s where a skilled financial mind earns his money…so not a big thought on your part VAR guy…

  3. Avatar The VAR Guy July 9, 2008 @ 6:08 am
    Reply

    @John: The VAR Guy begs to differ. It is NOT the job of investor relations to rally investors. Rather, investor relations needs to set responsible financial expectations.

    The VAR Guy isn’t suggesting that McCallum is hyping Red Hat stock. But he worries when readers think investor relations folks should be rally leaders. Your point about putting “public information in the most meaningful light” is right on. But a rally cry from Investor Relations would be dangerous.

  4. Avatar JOHN July 10, 2008 @ 1:32 pm
    Reply

    How does… “Now for the twist: McCallum on July 7 wrote a blog that attempts to clarify Red Hat’s financial momentum.” Clarifying a position equate to rallying… has the VAR GUY worked on Wall St? He should stick to topics that matter and aren’t pure wonderment in my view.. it’s irritating when someone talk about things in which they have no expertise

    Then you write:

    McCallum’s blog entry is a good read for anyone who wants to get up to speed on Red Hat’s business. But… The VAR Guy wonders… is McCallum trying to tactfully rally investors around Red Hat? … and I say this is his job… Wall St setss in own expectations and priorities whether the company or Investor relations VP likes it or not… so when an offbeat analyst kills a stocks momentum after a great quarter it IS the responsibility of the IR VP to counter with the facts, and not have it considered by the VAR guy as “rallying”

    Believe me… if something was going on that was wrong, someone else besides the VAR guy would take notice

  5. Avatar The VAR Guy July 10, 2008 @ 1:35 pm
    Reply

    @JOHN: Is your last name all caps too?

    Kidding aside, The VAR Guy welcomes constructive criticism. And by the way: The resident blogger has run a few stock indexes since 1998. He’s not a Wall Street pro. But he’s no amateur, either.

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