Windows 7 for Christmas 2009?
USA Today and other major media outlets are starting to suggest that Windows 7 — the successor to Windows Vista — could arrive in time for Christmas 2009. Frankly, that sounds like a holiday nightmare to The VAR Guy. Here’s why.
Microsoft needs to get Windows 7 right. Rushing it out the door to cash in on 2009 holiday spending would most likely backfire.
Windows 7 Beta 1 is expected to arrive within the next few days or weeks, according to All About Microsoft, the popular blog penned by Mary Jo Foley. In the meantime, Microsoft is now allowing PC makers to stock Windows XP through mid-2009.
Killer Applications?
Also, consider this: Applications sell operating systems. And when was the last time you caught yourself thinking: “I need Windows Vista because there’s a hot, new, innovative Microsoft application that only runs on Vista.”
Fast forward to Windows 7’s launch, and Microsoft better have at least three killer, new, innovative applications that drive consumers, kids or businesses to the new operating system. Developing those “new” applications — whatever they may be — is going to take time.
Despite growing media hype for Windows 7, The VAR Guy suspects Microsoft will take its time with the forthcoming operating system. Things are bad in Windows land, but the software giant doesn’t need to press the panic button yet. As USA Today pointed out:
“…revenue from Microsoft’s client division, which includes Vista, rose 13% to $16.9 billion in its 2008 fiscal year, ended June 30. Operating income rose 14% to $13.1 billion. That’s partly because corporations paid Microsoft to access Vista but then chose not to use it.”
The World Has Changed
Besides, Microsoft’s biggest software problem involves the shifting software landscape rather than Vista.
The age of big, monolithic software environments that take years to develop is over. Because of Software as a Service (SaaS), mobile computing and appliance-based systems, customers increasingly expect tightly-written software that is upgraded far more regularly as part of an ongoing maintenance agreement or monthly service fee.
In some respects, Linux has the upper hand in the modern, open age of IT. Heck, even Dell has been advertising Ubuntu Linux-based Netbooks in its newspaper ads this holiday season.
But does that mean Microsoft is dead? Hardly.
Even failed software industry products — such as OS/2 — took years to kill off. Microsoft still generates big, big profits. With a little less arrogance and a little more R&D polish, Microsoft could easily get back on track with Windows 7. Apple recovered from multiple disastrous moves in the 1990s. Microsoft can certainly recover from one really bloated operating system.
But don’t count on Windows 7 for Christmas 2009.
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If the past is anything to go by, those who really want Windows 7 are well advised to wait for the first service pack a few months later, anyway.
Simplicius: You’ve made another great point, there. THe VAR Guy has been pretty hard on Microsoft for the Vista mess. But he does think the software giant will get Windows 7 right … in 2010.
This is real coincidence…
I just came home 15 minutes ago from a visit to Bangkok ( I kive around here ).
Windows 7 was all-over the place.
They even put on some editions : SP1
Didn’t ask or looked for more, as I am using Linux.
Merry Christmas to all of you
Nikkels: The VAR Guy has heard about the international date line, but is Bangkok really a year ahead of the US?
It sounds like The VAR Guy has some unrealistically high expectations for Windows 7. I tend to think Microsoft will get it out somewhere between early and on time because it’s just a minor tweak to Vista, which according to all 6 people who use it is perfectly usable now. MS is repainting the UI, adding a touch screen interface nobody wants that doesn’t have any hardware it can run on, changing the name, and rebooting the marketing campaign. How much work can that be? How much testing can it require? I’m pretty confident they’ll have it released to manufacturing by next Christmas. They might even hold it back a bit from an even earlier release, just to give the impression they’re busting their tails on it.
Did the VAR guy miss Nikkels joke (Windows 7 = Vista) or is the VAR guy so quick-witted that I missed *his* joke?
Simplicius: Lots of tongue-in-cheek dialog flying around the site today.
In my view you are looking down the wrong alley when you say you need killer apps to sell the next Windows.
Many of us thought that Vista will never make the numbers but just look at the record profits MS is pulling in…yes, it’s not because Vista’s great, but only MS had to do was either twist the arms of major hardware manufacturers by cooling withdrawing Vista, or, under the table, offer incentives for pushing Vista rather than XP.
So can we get our eyes focused here? Windows 7, whenever it arrives, is going to follow the same roll-out method–withdraw Vista, and tell hardware makers, take it or…
What’s hardware without an OS? (Corporations are too heavily invested and locked-in to move away from Windoze and into Linux)
Ram: The VAR Guy thinks Microsoft will eat some humble pie and deliver a good product. That doesn’t eliminate the fact that more and more people have opened their eyes to Mac OS X and Linux. Nor does it eliminate the fact that hardware companies now WANT to offer alternatives to Windows.
The bottom line: A strong Windows 7 will inspire Apple and the Linux distributions to remain hungry and innovative. And that’s a good thing for all observers.
MS has many of extremely talented people who can make a kick ass OS. The administration is the problem. Windows 7 will no doubt be better than Vista. Windows 7 is what Vista should have been in the first place. The problem for MS is that Windows 7 better bring something to the table other than eye candy. Windows XP does what people need. They are used to the interface. Linux and Mac are arguably ahead of XP in terms of eye candy and performance. Windows 7 must do something that makes the majority say “Wow I need that”, I don’t see this happening.
I use Linux and it does all I need. What can MS do to make a satisfied WIndows XP or Linux user switch?
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# Simplicius Says:
December 24th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Did the VAR guy miss Nikkels joke (Windows 7 = Vista) or is the VAR guy so quick-witted that I missed *his* joke?
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I wasn’t joking and I am sober.
I said that windows 7 is all over the place and I mean it.
I didn’t say it was the real thing
To the Var guy…
No , Bangkok is usually 50 years behind, but when it comes to pirated copies and/or misleading titles, no one can beat them.
Take a trip to here….it will be an education ( in piracy )
Considering Windows Vista has basically been the beta for Windows 7 it really would be a remarkable failure if Microsoft didn’t turn out a halfway decent OS in 2010. But stranger things have happened.
There are two things that still have me think Windows 7 will be a disappointment to Microsoft. One is the killer applications. Right now that seems to be the touch interface transplanted from Windows Surface which will be useless to everybody that doesn’t upgrade their displays. Microsoft are still failing to learn from a key mistake of the past. The need to upgrade hardware to take advantage of Windows new features.
The other thing is that nobody is fooled by Windows 7. Everybody that has seen it has said it’s a slightly more polished version of Vista. That association with Vista can only be bad for Windows 7.
For the consumer who upgrades to Windows 7 from Windows Vista, they will basically be paying for the same OS twice over when Microsoft could have made the same changes in a free service pack. If I were a Windows consumer I would be very annoyed and left feeling very ripped off.
For large corporations and businesses in general it means they’ll still be getting Vista and not the now mythical modular MinWin kernel they were all holding out for. And again the touch interface isn’t going to be enough to encourage businesses to make the move from 2000, XP or in the rare instance, Vista.
Basically right now, just like Windows Vista, Windows 7 isn’t bringing anything new to the table that we actually need so badly it’s a must have item. Microsoft has failed to listen yet again.