Did 2011 Mark the Beginning of the End of the PC Era?
As 2011 nears its end, there's a very real question that needs to be addressed: Have we entered the era when we may legitimately see the death of the traditional PC and laptop as we know it? I asked this question in June 2010, but as we roll into 2012, has this idea become reality?
Here are the top three reasons why I think 2012 will be the first year that ends with more mobile devices and fewer PCs doing the computing:
Here are the top three reasons why I think 2012 will be the first year that ends with more mobile devices and fewer PCs doing the computing:
As 2011 nears its end, there’s a very real question that needs to be addressed: Have we entered the era when we may legitimately see the death of the traditional PC and laptop as we know it? I asked this question in June 2010, but as we roll into 2012, has this idea become reality?
Here are the top three reasons why I think 2012 will be the first year that ends with more mobile devices and fewer PCs doing the computing:
- Apple and Google: They’re unstoppable. Between Ice Cream Sandwich tablets and the soon-to-arrive iPad 3 with a retina display, iOS and Android will continue to dominate. As OEMs gear up to build more powerful tablets, the mobile CPU industry likewise will want to keep up, building better and more powerful system-on-a-chip devices that can deliver unparalleled performance and battery life. And with larger-resolution screens and a growing developer base, these devices are likely to offer more and more robust applications. Plus, now that companies including Cisco Systems and VMware (just to name a few) are viewing the iPad as a serious platform for extending software and services, there’s no telling what a year can bring with more powerful devices.
- Microsoft: Windows 8 may not hit the scene until the second half of 2012, but I wouldn’t underestimate its impact. With rumors already flying the Windows 8 tablets will be priced in the $200 range, Microsoft could take the enterprise mobile world by storm, especially if Intel impresses with its next generation of x86 Atom CPUs. Users initially may be put off by Windows 8’s Metro interface, but (and as much as I’d prefer iOS over it) Metro offers a brilliant balance between a desktop environment and a mobile workspace, with the option to fall back on good old-fashioned Windows Explorer and desktop. Since it’s Windows (and assuming it’s x86) it’s pretty much a given IT admins will be giving it a thumbs up, and the price tag can hardly be beat. Add in a tablet dock, and a Windows 8 tablet could replace a traditional thin client if an employee so chooses.
- Vendors are getting it: Run a search here on The VAR Guy for “MDM,” “mobile device” and “consumerization of IT” and you’ll see what I mean. Almost every major security, virtualization, cloud and networking vendor is gearing up to handle the influx, compliance and management of mobile devices in the workplace. If we extrapolate that growth out over the next year, it’s not hard to imagine that the start of 2013 is a very mobile device-centric world. What’s more, PC manufacturers are focusing on “small” as much as possible. What’s an ultrabook but a tablet with a keyboard, really? That’s an oversimplification right now, but expect the lines to blur considerably when Windows 8 arrives.
In 2010, I said the death of the PC was coming mainly due to virtualization and cloud with a dash of tablet mania. But in 2012, the death of the PC will be due to a much simpler reason: We don’t need PCs like we used to, especially as more and more mobile devices replace their functions.
Wow perhaps I am just old. We have tablets, smart phones, and Ipod touches in our house. I Enjoy sitting on the couch listening to music or playing a game, but for rapid fire productivity, and versatility, I still feel like I am most comfortable seated in front of a keyboard and monitor hammering away. The touch, tablet and mobile interface feels like a graceful, aesthetically pleasing way to get things done especially in mobile situations, but a lot of times I feel like the gatling gun approach is what I need. Writing a stream of consciousness post is still not what I want to do with a mobile device if I have a choice. I just feel like the death of the PC is greatly exagerated unless I will be steamrolled by the current inertia anyway.
Anything with Windows or x86 in it will not be cheap–or, at any rate, not cheap enough. Both Microsoft and Intel have grown used to fat margins, and will not give those up without a fight. Historically, the odds are overwhelmingly stacked in favour of the low-margin, high-volume products (e.g. ARM-based devices) encroaching into the higher-margin, lower-volume market (e.g. Windows PCs), not the other way round.
Windows 8 and Atom are both attempts by their makers to force the market into adapting to products that they want to sell, not to adapt themselves to what the market wants.
Agreed. Microsoft cannot sell $99 copies of Windows if the entire tablet is going to be priced at $200. I think tablets are replacing PCs, but I don’t think MS or Intel will want to cut their margins to compete with Android and ARM. Why would the OEMs want to help Wintel retain their monopoly when they can make higher margins with more differentiation using Anroid and ARM?
Hey Lawrence and Sam,
Normally, I would agree with you guys, but I have one word: XBOX.
Microsoft has continued to sell the Xbox as a loss leader in the gaming category. With more components and more parts than a modern tablet, the entry level Xbox still goes for $199. I can easily see Microsoft attempting the same strategy with a dedicated OEM vendor to build a $199 tablet. Once the market is saturated, both Microsoft and the OEM can rake in more cash from tablet peripherals or applications. In addition, if the Win 8 tab catches on, then both MS and the OEM can put out a few different tablets at price points.
Secondly, it’s already been revealed that the Kindle Fire is being sold at a loss as well. If anyone can compete on price alone, it’s going to be big companies like Microsoft, which traditionally, have shoved the price comparison down everyone’s throats anyway.
Remember the “I’m a PC” commercials?
Lawrence: the market doesn’t know what it wants, especially with the tablet space. Every other tablet maker who claims they’re giving the consumer what they want by outfitting a crummy Android tablet with USB ports, SD card slots and styluses isn’t exactly making big bucks right now, are they?
The market needs to be told. That’s part of why Steve Jobs was so damn successful. Do you think the market would clamor for a “10-inch iPod Touch” if they surveyed a bunch of people in 2009? No. But in 2010 as the iPad, people couldn’t’ get enough of it.
The Windows 8 tablet market is very much a place where the consumer needs to be TOLD what they want and how they want it, because Metro is something completely foreign from traditional Windows, and if Microsoft really wants to compete in the tablet space, you can bet your butt that they’ll pull out all the stops to make sure people both want to want it, want to pay for it and want to use it.
Sam: “Why would OEMs want to help Wintel?” — for the simple reason that they’re not really making higher margins with Android and ARM, especially when they’re not selling. More importantly, Google doesn’t funnel tons of cash to Android tablet makers. Microsoft and Intel definitely have way more resources to promote, build and sell a product than a stand-alone OEM fumbling with an RD team and Google’s code.
I would watch out. However impressive Ice Cream Sandwich is, it’s still Android, and Android can be intimidating to non-techy users, especially non-tablet users. There’s just too much going on in every step, between the lock screen, home screens, notification menu, application drawer and so on.
Both iOS and Win 8 offer the user something way more streamlined and intuitive.
When tablets become the next hot thing to have in December 2012, you can bet the non-tablet non-tech people will be comfortable with the idea of Windows, understand the Metro interface with much greater ease than Android, and find the price tag much more “friendly.”
I would not underestimate Microsoft in 2012 with Windows 8 tablets.
Dave,
Good points. Although XBOX is a side show at MS. Windows is their bread and butter. They can afford to gamble with XBOX, Zune, Azure, etc. If it doesn’t work out, they just go back to the Windows cash cow and grab some more funding. They can’t afford to take those risks with Windows.
I think the OEMs have no incentive to go along with Wintel. Sure, they may sell more Win 8 tablets than Android or some proprietary OS, but who cares if HP sells a million tablets at 2% margins. It is just a distraction from higher value businesses. They would be better off staying out of the business altogether than being a Wintel serf. IBM figured this out years ago with PCs…. Best case scenario for HP, Dell, Lenovo, etc is that they have a lower revenue and lower profit version of the PC business that they are trying to distance themselves from at the moment. If it is going to be a Windows 8 world, they can make higher profits selling lawn furniture or something.
The Win 8 tablet business is also much more uncertain than PCs. The OEMs know there is a market for PCs. Win 8 tablets, not so much. It assumes people get tired of Apple’s ridiculously superior products. If Microsoft wants the OEMs to play their game, they are going to have to part with more of the profit margins than they are providing in the PC racket. HP, far and away the leader in PCs, is having difficultly making Wintel work as a business. If the OEMs go with Android (or some other Linux OS), they at least have a chance to differentiate their products and won’t be selling straight commodities like PCs where cost is the only way they can compete. I agree that Android is long shot to win against iOS, but Win 8 is a no shot. Even if they win, they lose. HP, Dell, Lenovo think that Apple is their competitor. Microsoft is their real competitor.
XBox lost over 5 billion in its first few years on the market. Not sure if it’s recouped that loss yet. So consider it a massive boondoggle which, really, has yet to pay off.
Those el cheapo Android 2.x tablets have already managed to grab something like 20-25% of the tablet market. Since most of them seemed to be manufactured by low-overhead no-name companies in China, I would say, yes, they probably made a decent profit on them.
Yes, the Kindle Fire may be being sold at around a 0% margin (not necessarily at an outright loss). And what is it built on? Android. It was not the first, and it will not be the last, attempt to take Android in a completely different direction from what Google may want. Two or three such attempts may fail, but somewhere, one will succeed. That’s the beauty of Open Source, that you can do things like that without the blessing of the platform “owner”, because there is no platform “owner”.
Margins—that’s where the enthusiasm for moving away from Wintel comes from. Only Microsoft and Intel make fat margins from Windows PCs, everybody else has to make do with dregs. Why do you think HP wanted to get out of the PC business? But in the ARM devices, there is plenty of profit to go round for everybody, even though the the products are overall cheaper. That’s because there is nobody in the chain with the huge overheads (and market control) of Microsoft or Intel.
As for customers wanting to be told what they want—which platform market share is growing faster, Apple or Android?
I rest my case.