There should be sizable U.S. B2B sales growth through the reseller channel through the rest of the year. So says The NPD Group, which prediects year-over-year revenue and unit sales increases of 8%.

But look for the market to be more stagnant after that. The NPD Group predicts a slight year-over-year revenue decline (down 1%) next year. That will be followed by a return to growth (up 2%) in 2024, the market research group says. Overall, through 2024, expect U.S. B2B technology reseller channel revenue to be 18% above pre-pandemic 2019 levels.

Hardware Remains Dominant

NPD’s Mike Crosby

Mike Crosby is director and B2B technology industry analyst for NPD.

“Despite lingering supply chain issues and fluctuating pandemic conditions, 2022 has seen strong first quarter growth with momentum expected to continue into the second quarter,” Crosby said. “While average sales prices (ASPs) will likely remain high through most of 2022, ASPs will begin to contract in 2023, resulting in the anticipated revenue decline despite unit sales growth.”

Through the next three years, hardware will maintain its dominant share of reseller channel revenue, The NPD Group predicts. However, software, cloud and managed IT services should make gains. By the end of 2024, cloud should reach $3 billion in sales through the channel. This reflects a year-over-year increase of approximately 35% each year from 2022-2024.

Despite challenging comps, supply challenges and growing prices, demand for computers in 2022 remains positive. That’s because midsize and enterprise companies continue to expand their remote workforces. This category will see gains in 2024 as well, as organizations will begin refreshing devices that they deployed in 2020.

“Technology spend will also be driven by digital transformation efforts that are expanding beyond the initial pivot to work-from-home. Changes made to business operations will impact purchases as well as projects utilizing emerging technologies such as AI, machine learning, IoT and automation become more mainstream,” Crosby said.