The NPD Group has released its latest forecast for the U.S. B2B technology channel, which it says will see a 2% decline in revenue in 2022. Volume normalization will occur across a number of 2021 high-growth categories.

That said, a return to growth is expected for 2023. Experts predict revenue gains of 3% in 2023 as channel sales top $106 billion.

NPD’s Mike Crosby

Mike Crosby is director and B2B technology industry analyst for NPD.

“Unencumbered by the market challenges of the previous two years, 2023 has the potential to be a year of strong gains with businesses leveraging the efficiencies and scalability digital transformation provides,” Crosby said.

A Return to ‘Normal’ Markets

The 2% overall decline projected for 2022 is attributed to the return to normal demand for Notebooks and Chromebooks. In addition, many work-from-home products such as monitors and keyboards are less sought after.

Slowing sales for Chromebooks will result from a return to in-person learning. This is as administrators pause to better understand usage, utilization, and the general status of the millions of deployed devices. Additionally, sales of software and cloud infrastructure categories are forecasted to gain steam in 2022. It is driven by digital transformation begun during the pandemic with a focus on remote workforce security, continuity and productivity.

Working from Home

“The pivot to working from home that began in 2020 jump-started the momentum around digital transformation and that will continue to be a significant driver of future technology spend,” Crosby said. “Changes made to business operations are also likely to drive spend as projects utilizing emerging technologies become more mainstream, including artificial intelligence, machine learning, IoT, and automation.”

The expected 3% gains in 2023 will result from continuing software and cloud growth based on digital transformation initiative maturity and expansion. Users will look to gain a productivity advantage through improvements in technology, rather than through a simple device replacement.